The In-Laws under 9 million

[Oren1]

Well I dropped the ball on this one and it's up to -150 now... haven't bit yet, but I probably will soon unless someone is on the other side with a good argument. My reasoning is this:
Michael Douglas' last movie, It Runs In the Family, tanked, big time, didn't break 4 million.
Last week Down by Love had heavy competition from the Matrix and fell severely short of it's 15 million estimite. An "expert" has predicted that this movie will make 15 million. Ummm.... There is still a lot of competition out there, and this movie looks terrible.
Albert Brooks may be a good comedian, but he has little to no box office draw. His last starring roll, in the Muse, netted that movie an opening of 3.9 million. If you add these guy's last TWO movie opening's together they don't break 9 million. Brook's had another film called "MY FIRST MISTER" which came out after the Muse which I've never heard of. Admittingly, I haven't paid much attention to any of the previews to this film as it doesn't appeal to me at all, maybe I'm wrong here, but I smell another bomb?

On the other hand we've got Liar Liar under 55 at something like -175, which is a terrible price to pay since that one has a decent chance to go slightly over the mark, but might not. I can't really guage this one at all, it's been so long since Carrey has done one of these types of movies. 55 seems a bit high, but I'm going to stay away from that one...

[This message was edited by Oren1 on May 23, 2003 at 12:19 AM.]

 

[Oren1]

so, thinking about this some more, I wondered, what audience is this movie appealing to. Obviously, the older generation. A recent, comparable movie sprung to mind, the Banger Sisters, another awful looking film with absolutely no appeal to the younger generation of moviegoers. It's opening gross? 10.032 million. I would say these two old farts have even less of a chance than Goldie and Susan of breaking the 9 million mark... But, I imagine it might be very close... if I'm not totally off the mark here.

 

[Oren1]

Got it at -165.

 

[Gillian]

If that expert is the gitesh the guru... he has been majorly off as of late. Use to be better, but in the last couple of months his predictions have tanked.

I say the In-Laws does average. 9 is a great call... but I'd pick 8. So I'd take Under. Listen, unless you're 40 or over... if you want comedy... you're going to see Bruce Almighty, period, amen.

Gil.

 

[Gillian]

Gil is going to make a prediction a clean house... why... I just looked up three movies i would rather see than In-laws that made less than 9 million. Example... View From The Top... 2500 theaters... made 7 million. And that's without Jimmy Carrey breathing down its back.

Gil.

 

[Oren1]

yeah, I was talking about the "box office guru." He's always got a pretty good write-up, but his final numbers, you're right, are sometimes fade material when it comes to wagering. If this movie makes 15 million I'll post a picture of myself humping possum roadkill.

 

[SoundofSilence]

I took them both early this morning...

In-Laws OVER 9 Million -115
Bruce Almighty UNDER 55 Million -115

Bruce Almighty I already made my points on, as for In-Laws -- $9 million is pretty damn low, and this movie is being marketed as a "My Big Fat Greek Wedding" clone -- I think that alone will get it right around $9 mill. Combined with there not being any direct competition that weekend, I think it hits $11 or $12 mill.

Finding Nemo dropped to -5 million with plus money vs Bruce Almighty, but still not a big enough cushion for me to take Nemo.

 

[Oren1]

you LIE!

 

[Oren1]

 

[Oren1]

yeah, 9 million is really low, but watching the preview, there really isn't one funny scene in there. I don't remember hearing any audience reaction at all when seeing it in the theaters, either. Pretty much just crickets chirping, and even It Runs in The Family managed a couple of laughs and that thing tanked. Anyways, you very well might be right, it could be a 50/50 shot judging from people's predictions.

 

[SoundofSilence]

I definitely didn't take it based on how funny I thought it would be... I think it'll suck.

That being said, I still think enough people will go see it, wanting another "Big Fat Greek Wedding" type movie.

As for lying... about what? The lines I got it at? I took Bruce at -115 (its now -200), but I took In-Laws at -115 also (and its now +155) -- so I really didn't gain a whole lot of value by taking them early.

 

[Oren1]

I was just kidding, basically I was saying that I hope you're wrong.

Good luck on your Bruce wager bud.

 

[Gillian]

Sound Of Silence: "That being said, I still think enough people will go see it, wanting another "Big Fat Greek Wedding" type movie."


Uh, I don't know what preview you were watching, but My Big Fat Greek Ass and the In-laws has about as much in common as a hooker and a pre-school teacher. With that said... if you are going to bet money on OVER 9... then you're better off to boogie over to Intertops before it's too late and lay some cash on over 12... at least there you get +350 odds.

Oh, onto other news... who needs RB... I just won both my Roger Ebert bets @ intertops... Bruce Almighty 3 stars and In-Laws 2.

Yeeehhhaaaa... it's all up hill from here.

 

[jcambert]

World Sports Exchange lines are for the FOUR day weekend, not the THREE day weekend like at Olympic. The lines you quoted are at Olympic. I played the OVER 8 million for the FOUR day weekend at WSEX. I think that it breaks it EASILY (over the four day).

JP

 

[Oren1]

damn, that would have been a much better choice.

 

[MrKennedy]

what book is offering these bets... a regular sportsbook ?

 

[Gillian]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by MrKennedy:
what book is offering these bets... a regular sportsbook ?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Intertops.com has these kind of bets and a few others. But at this moment I only have money in my Intertops account.

Gil

 

[SoundofSilence]

Gil:

You obviously haven't been watching the previews at all. Its being marketed AS a Big Fat Greek Wedding type of movie... Not just that it appears to be the same type, but the words BIG, FAT and GREEK come up in big letters in the damn preview!

Please get more informed before making stupid statements.

As for taking OVER 12 at Intertops, why on earth would that be a better bet? I think it will hit right around 12 or 13, so taking the OVER 12 instead of OVER 9 really wouldn't be all that smart.

No offense, but you look pretty silly railing on other people when I think you've won maybe 1 out of your 10 bets posted here.

 

[Oren1]

I really think this is going to be closer to 9 million. Trying to market a movie as a Big Fat Greek Wedding clone is not automatic box office gold. While you could say Greek maybe looked "charming" in it's previews, personally the feeling I get watching In-Law's preview is boredom and a slight touch of annoyance. Plus, when was the last time a movie marketed toward the older audience made any significant amount of money? Maybe I just wasn't paying attention... People are going to be seeing Bruce, the Matrix, Daddy Day Care, and even X2 over this one... It could also end up being between 9.1 and 11 or so, but f*ckit.

 

[Oren1]